Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 4.040750 4.470420 4.985435 5.668742 6.588591 7.852668 9.885953
2024-12-29 3.580207 4.119877 4.831618 5.908197 7.669890 10.979667 21.118024
2025-01-05 3.162907 3.698918 4.435316 5.619825 7.773386 12.791113 50.987579
2025-01-12 2.867006 3.383399 4.109639 5.321700 7.681390 14.176336 NaN
2025-01-19 2.678172 3.187543 3.920033 5.187751 7.839602 16.825349 NaN
2025-01-26 2.601146 3.136661 3.934092 5.398876 8.884851 28.807308 NaN
2025-02-02 2.563269 3.135328 4.020940 5.766484 10.717269 547.597361 NaN
2025-02-09 2.475119 3.049178 3.955695 5.811331 11.670992 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.403885 2.981889 3.912514 5.891930 12.946326 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.290839 2.841970 3.729601 5.618740 12.365365 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.231496 2.781953 3.680964 5.649577 13.418762 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.175225 2.722903 3.627936 5.658941 14.467785 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.093384 2.622096 3.497364 5.469094 14.154447 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.065892 2.606372 3.520068 5.673928 17.312821 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.986764 2.503286 3.373163 5.406618 15.954387 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.911314 2.403553 3.227861 5.131153 14.452642 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.858148 2.337945 3.142672 5.007053 14.280083 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.845097 2.336326 3.175714 5.202463 17.638755 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.845611 2.356569 3.251622 5.541118 26.362520 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.816784 2.326615 3.227653 5.582295 31.678589 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.792523 2.303151 3.214680 5.656220 41.936053 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.741791 2.233355 3.105381 5.405253 33.551149 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.717520 2.207484 3.082973 5.433638 41.576420 NaN NaN